Description

Uncertainty plays a fundamental role in financial markets and strategic conflicts. In many real-world situations, it is not possible to model uncertainty by means of well-defined probability distributions. Instead, participants face Knightian uncertainty: they do not know the exact probability distribution over possible outcomes. In view of this, it is important to incorporate such Knightian uncertainty or ambiguity into the analysis of markets and strategic conflicts. This project aims to clarify the foundations for ambiguity in dynamic financial markets and strategic interactions. As a by-product, we aim to unify different (extant) approaches to modeling preferences and decision making in games under ambiguity. The issue of dynamic consistency will now be of particular concern. We apply our newly developed theoretical tools to a concrete economic problems by studying in detail the consequences of Knightian uncertainty in strategic interactions like dynamic contracts and elections on the one hand, as well as in markets under uncertainty, including portfolio choice and asset pricing with heterogeneous agents and incomplete information.

Participants

Activities

• Kick-off workshop takes place at the ZIF (Bielefeld University) on March 25-27, 2019
• The first intermediate workshop will take place at Kyoto and Hokkaido on March 6-14, 2020. CANCELED
• The second intermediate workshop will take place in London on April 5-11, 2021.
• The closing conference will take place in Paris on December 15-18, 2021.

• Program_kick_off_wshp.pdf (225.7K)

Publications

• Market Allocations under Ambiguity: A Survey (Antoine Billot, Jean-Marc Tallon, Sujoy Mukerji)
• On stochastic independence under ambiguity (Federica Ceron and Vassili Vergopoulos)
• A complete folk theorem for finitely repeated games (Ghislain-Herman Demeze-Jouatsa)
• Interactive information design (Frédéric Koessler, Marie Laclau and Tristan Tomala)

• Dynamic Consistency in Incomplete Information Games with Multiple Priors (Marieke Pahlke)

• Farsighted Rationality in Hedonic Games (Ghislain-Herman Demeze-Jouatsa and Dominik Karos)

Preprints

• Dynamic Consistency in Incomplete Information Games with Multiple Priors (Marieke Pahlke)
• Dynamic Consistency in Ambiguous Persuasion (Marieke Pahlke)
• A Ranking over "More Risk Averse Than" Relations and its Application to the Smooth Ambiguity Model (Chiaki Hara)
• Did Partisan Voters Spoil the Country? A Randomized-thought Experiment (Ghislain-Herman Demeze-Jouatsa)
• Repetition and cooperation: A model of finitely repeated games with objective ambiguity (Ghislain-Herman Demeze-Jouatsa)
• Long information design (Frédéric Koessler, Marie Laclau, Jérôme Renault and Tristan Tomala)
• Recursive objective and subjective multiple priors (Federica Ceron and Vassili Vergopoulos)
• Effects of Noise on the Grammar of Languages (Gerrit Bauch)
• Language Games under Knightian Uncertainty about Types (Zhaojun Xing)

• Foundations of ambiguity models under symmetry: α-MEU and smooth ambiguity (Peter Klibanoff, Sujoy Mukerji, Kyoungwon Seo and Lorenzo Stanca)

• Information Design in Multi-stage Games (Miltiadis Makris and Ludovic Renou)

• Dynamic Choice and Common Learning (Rahul Deb and Ludovic Renou)

• Cross-verification and Persuasive Cheap Talk (Alp Atakan, Mehmet Ekmekci and Ludovic Renou)

News

• On March 25-27, 2019 a Kick-off workshop takes place at the ZIF (Bielefeld University).
• An article about the Project (German)
• Zhaojun Xing gives a talk at the TOM seminar of the Paris School of Economics on April 4th, 2019.
• Frank Riedel will give a talk at the D-TEA and RUD conferences in Paris (June 3-7, 2019).
• Ghislain-H. Demeze-Jouatsa will give a talk at the D-TEA and RUD conferences in Paris (June 3-7, 2019).
• Marieke Pahlke will give a talk at the SAET conference in Ischia (June 30 - July 06, 2019).
• Frank Riedel will give a talk at the SAET conference in Ischia (June 30 - July 06, 2019).
• Ghislain-H. Demeze-Jouatsa will give a talk at the SAET conference in Ischia, Italy (June 30 - July 06, 2019).
• Marieke Pahlke will give a talk at the "34th Annual Congress of the European Economic Association" in Manchester, United Kingdom (August 26-30, 2019).
• Marieke Pahlke will visit Frederic Koessler at Paris School of Economics on 17-29 September 2019.
• Marieke Pahlke gives a talk at the TOM seminar of the Paris School of Economics on September 19th, 2019.
• Professor Kazuya Hyogo will visit the Center for Mathematical Economics of Bielefeld University for a year, starting from April 2nd, 2020.
• Within the project "Ambiguity in Dynamic Environments" (Open Research Area in the Social Sciences), Frank Riedel meets the other principal investigators of the project from September 10-13, 2019.
• Ghislain-H DEMEZE-JOUATSA gave a talk in the Brown-bag seminar of the FSS of the University of Ottawa on September 17th, 2019.
• Ghislain-H DEMEZE-JOUATSA gave a talk in the MASS monthly Seminar of the University of Yaoundé I on September 28th, 2019.
• Marieke Pahlke gave an online talk at the 12th World Congress of the Econometric Society on August 17th, 2020.

• Marieke Pahlke gave an online talk at the TOM seminar of the Paris School of Economics on November 26th, 2020.

• Ghislain-H. Demeze-Jouatsa gave an online talk at the Paris Game Theory Seminar on May 10th, 2021. 
• Chiaki Hara will give an online talk in the Economics Seminar at Bielefeld University on May 11th, 2021.
• Ghislain-H. Demeze-Jouatsa, Marieke Pahlke, and Zhaojun Xing gave an online talk at the 6th World Congress of the Game Theory Society that took place from July 19 to July 23, 2021.
• Gerrit Bauch will visit the Economics Department of the Eller College of Management at the University of Arizona in Tucson from January 14th to May 31st, 2022.
• Ghislain-H. Demeze-Jouatsa will visit the Mathematics Department of the Higher Teachers' Training College at the University of Yaounde 1 in Cameroon from February 07th to April 20th, 2022.
• Ghislain-H. Demeze-Jouatsa will give a talk in the monthly seminar of the research team ERMASS at the University of Yaounde 1 on February 26th, 2022.

• Ghislain-H. Demeze-Jouatsa gave a talk at the 25th Annual Coalition Theory Network (CTN) Conference that took place in Barcelona on May 20 - 21 2022.

• Gerrit Bauch gave a talk at the 33rd Stony Brook International Conference on Game Theory that took place in Stony Brook (New York) on July 18-21, 2022.

• Frank Riedel, Ghislain-H. Demeze-Jouatsa, and Gerrit Bauch gave an online talk at the 21st annual SAET conference that took place at the ANU, Canberra, Australia on July 16-22, 2022.

• Ghislain-H. Demeze-Jouatsa gave two talks at the 37th meeting of the European Economic Association and the 74th European meeting of the Econometric Society that took place in Milan on August 22 - 26, 2022.