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  • Statistics and Data Analysis Group

    Rouven Michels
    © Universität Bielefeld

Rouven Michels (M.Sc.)

Research associate (PhD student)

Room: V9-126
Phone: +49 521 106-5103
E-mail: r.michels@uni-bielefeld.de

Short CV

  • Since 10/2020: PhD student in the Statistics and Data Analysis Group
  • 05/2019-09/2020: Associate at KPMG (Corporate Governance Services – Risk Management)
  • 10/2013-02/2019: Studies of Mathematical Economics (B.Sc. & M.Sc.) at Bielefeld University

Publications

  • Adam, T., Ötting, M., Michels, R. (2023)
    "Markov-switching decision trees"
    AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, in press
  • Oelschläger, L., Adam, T., Michels, R. (2023)
    "fHMM: hidden Markov models for financial time series in R"
    Journal of Statistical Software, in press
  • Michels, R., Ötting, M., Langrock, R. (2023)
    "Bettors' reaction to match dynamics: Evidence from in-game betting"
    European Journal of Operational Research, in press

Preprints

Talks

  • "Modelling women’s football scores", RSS Prediction Competition (held online), July, 2023
  • "Modelling women's football scores", 10th MathSport International, Budapest, Hungary, June 2023
  • "Using tensor product B-splines for nonparametric inference in multivariate hidden Markov models", IMS International Conference on Statistics and Data Science, Florence, Italy, December 2022
  • "Extending the Dixon and Coles model: an application to women’s football data", Workshop of the Centre for Statistics, Bielefeld, November 2022
  • "Do bettors value actions on the pitch?", 9th MathSport International, Reading, UK, July 2022
  • "Using tensor product B-splines for nonparametric inference in multivariate hidden Markov models", DAGStat, Hamburg, March 2022
  • "Using tensor product B-splines for nonparametric inference in multivariate hidden Markov models", Workshop of the Centre for Statistics, Bielefeld, March 2022
  • "Patterns of betting behaviour for news in live betting markets", 12th ESEA Conference on Sport Economics (held online), August 2021
  • "Using state-space models for investigating time-varying team strengths in a live betting market", 9th Young Researchers Workshop of the Centre for Statistics, Bielefeld, July 2021
  • "Investigating drivers of stakes in a football live betting market", 8th MathSport International (held online), Reading, UK, June 2021 (video available at https://youtu.be/G5Rzxffj4_M)
  • "The Reaction to News in Live Betting", Statistics Seminar Series (held online), Bielefeld, April 2021

Awards

  • Student prize winner of the RSS Women's World Cup 2023 Prediction Competition

Teaching

  • Reading Course in Statistical Sciences, winter term 2022/23
  • Practicals for the lecture ''Hidden Markov Models'', summer term 2022
  • Practicals for the lecture ''Generalised Linear Models'', winter term 2021/22
  • Tutorials for the lecture courses "Stochastik I" and "Stochastik II" (2015–2019)

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