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News & Activities

2021

  • The German Research Foundation (DFG) approved another four years of funding of the Collaborative Research Centre ("Sonderforschungsbereich") SFB-TRR 212. Our group will be involved with one postdoc position.
  • A paper on state-space modelling in continuous time, led by Sina and co-authored by Marius and Roland, was accepted for publication in Statistical Modelling.
  • In the winter term, Marius will be Interim Professor of Data Science and Applied Statistics at the TU Clausthal.
  • A paper on the estimation of up-to-date small area poverty maps when only a dated census and a more recent survey are available, led by Peter, was accepted for publication in Review of Income and Wealth.
  • A paper presenting an evaluation of seven serological SARS-CoV-2-tests in a large cohort including true-positive and true-negative individuals, co-authored by Peter, was accepted for publication in Journal of General Virology.
  • Sina's paper on continuous-time capture-recapture modelling was accepted for publication in the Annals of Applied Statistics.
  • A paper describing the course of the COVID-19 pandemic in the Munich general population living in private households from April 2020 to January 2021, co-authored by Peter, was accepted for publication in BMC Infectious Diseases.
  • A paper investigating the prevalence and risk factors of SARS-CoV-2 in the Munich general population after the first wave of the pandemic, co-authored by Peter, was accepted for publication in International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health.
  • A new hot hand paper by Sina and Marius, considering basketball & continuous-time modelling, was accepted for publication in AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis.
  • Matthias' paper on classification-based model selection in demand forecasting was accepted for publication in the International Journal of Forecasting.
  • Julia Dyck has joined the group as a PhD student.
  • Jenny handed in her PhD thesis and has directly started a postdoc at BioMove in Potsdam.
  • A paper by Marius looking into a possible hot shoe in penalty talking, analysed using regularisation techniques within HMMs, was accepted for publication at Statistical Modelling.
  • A paper by Marius on play-calling in American Football was accepted for publication at the IMA Journal of Management Mathematics.
  • Jenny & Timo built the R package PHSMM for estimating HSMMs without having to specify a class of distributions for the dwell times. The package is now available on CRAN.

2020

  • Jenny has a new preprint on the arXiv, in which an effectively nonparametric method is developed for estimating the dwell-time distributions in HSMMs.
  • Sina and Marius have another new preprint on the arXiv, in which they analyse >100K free throws taken in the NBA to once and for all decide if there is a hot hand effect.
  • We have a new preprint on the arXiv, in which we propose and discuss a very general class of state-space models formulated in continuous time.
  • We have a new group member, Peter Pütz, who joins the group as a postdoc.
  • Roland will be a PI within EPOC ("Economic Policy in Complex Environments"), a new Marie Skłodowska-Curie Innovative Training Network across the EU, with partner universities in Amsterdam, Barcelona, Copenhagen, Paris, Venice and Milano.

2019

  • Roland was a guest editor of a METRON special issue on HMMs — here is the editorial giving an overview of the papers.
  • Sina won the best student presentation award at the IWSM 2019 in Guimarães.

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