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  • Statistics and Data Analysis Group

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News & Activities


  • Together with collaborators from the biology SFB, we had a paper accepted at Scientific Reports, in which we investigate behavioural strategies of Antarctic fur seals during early life.
  • A paper investigating the prevalence and risk factors of SARS-CoV-2 in the Munich general population after the first wave of the pandemic, co-authored by Peter, was accepted for publication in International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health.
  • A new hot hand paper by Sina and Marius, considering basketball & continuous-time modelling, was accepted for publication in AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis.
  • Matthias' paper on classification-based model selection in demand forecasting was accepted for publication in the International Journal of Forecasting.
  • Julia Dyck has joined the group as a PhD student.
  • Jenny handed in her PhD thesis and has directly started a postdoc at BioMove in Potsdam.
  • A paper by Marius looking into a possible hot shoe in penalty talking, analysed using regularisation techniques within HMMs, was accepted for publication at Statistical Modelling.
  • A paper by Marius on play-calling in American Football was accepted for publication at the IMA Journal of Management Mathematics.
  • Jenny & Timo built the R package PHSMM for estimating HSMMs without having to specify a class of distributions for the dwell times. The package is now available on CRAN.


  • Jenny has a new preprint on the arXiv, in which an effectively nonparametric method is developed for estimating the dwell-time distributions in HSMMs.
  • Sina and Marius have another new preprint on the arXiv, in which they analyse >100K free throws taken in the NBA to once and for all decide if there is a hot hand effect.
  • We have a new preprint on the arXiv, in which we propose and discuss a very general class of state-space models formulated in continuous time.
  • We have a new group member, Peter Pütz, who joins the group as a postdoc.
  • Roland will be a PI within EPOC ("Economic Policy in Complex Environments"), a new Marie Skłodowska-Curie Innovative Training Network across the EU, with partner universities in Amsterdam, Barcelona, Copenhagen, Paris, Venice and Milano.


  • Roland was a guest editor of a METRON special issue on HMMs — here is the editorial giving an overview of the papers.
  • Sina won the best student presentation award at the IWSM 2019 in Guimarães.

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