Statistics and Data Analysis Group

Dr. Marius Ötting

Postdoctoral research associate

Room V9-128
Phone: +49 521 106-4885
E-mail: marius.oetting@uni-bielefeld.de

Short CV

• Since 10/2020: Postdoc within the DFG project "Datengestützte Indikation von Betrug bei Live-Wetten"
• 03/2017-09/2020: PhD student in the Statistics and Data Analysis Group
• 10/2014-02/2017: Studies of Statistical Science (M.Sc.), Bielefeld University
• 10/2011-09/2014: Studies of Economics (B.Sc.), Bielefeld University

Publications in peer-reviewed journals

• Ötting, M., Langrock, R., Maruotti, A. (2021)
  "A copula-based multivariate hidden Markov model for modelling momentum in football"
  AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, in press
• Ötting, M., Groll, A. (2021)
  "A regularized hidden Markov model for analyzing the 'hot shoe' in football"
  Statistical Modelling, in press
• Ötting, M. (2021)
  "Predicting play-calls in the National Football League using hidden Markov models"
  IMA Journal of Management Mathematics, in press
• Winkelmann, D., Deutscher, C., Ötting, M. (2021)
  "Bookmakers' mispricing of the disappeared home advantage in the German Bundesliga after the COVID-19 break"
  Applied Economics, in press
• Ötting, M., Deutscher, C., Schneemann, S., Langrock, R., Gehrmann, S., Scholten, S. (2020)
  "Performance under pressure in skill tasks: An analysis of professional darts"
  PLOS ONE, 15(2), e0228870
• Ötting, M., Langrock, R., Deutscher, C., Leos-Barajas, V. (2020)
  "The hot hand in professional darts"
  Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society), 183(2), 565-580
• Ötting, M., Langrock, R., Deutscher, C. (2018)
  "Integrating multiple data sources in match-fixing warning systems"
  Statistical Modelling, 18(5-6): 483-504
• Deutscher, C., Ötting, M., Schneemann, S., Scholten, H. (2019)
  "The Demand for English Premier League Soccer Betting"
  Journal of Sports Economics, 20(4): 556-579
• Deutscher, C., Frick, B., Ötting, M. (2018)
  "Betting Market Inefficiencies are Short-lived in German Professional Football"
  Applied Economics, 50(30): 3240-3246

Current preprints

• Mews, S., Langrock, R., Ötting, M., Yaqine, H., Reinecke, J. (2020)
  "Maximum approximate likelihood estimation of general continuous-time state-space models"
  arXiv, 2010.14883
• Mews, S., Ötting, M. (2020)
  "Continuous-time state-space modelling of the hot hand in basketball"
  arXiv, 2011.04384
• Winkelmann, D., Ötting, M., Deutscher, C. (2020)
  "Short and long-term biases in European football pre-game betting markets"
  Bielefeld Working Papers in Economics and Management

Talks

• "Exploratory analysis of in-game betting dynamics”, Reading Online Sports Economics Seminars, Reading, UK, January 2021 (video availabe at youtu.be/Gx2kaApYpqs)
• "Modelling self-reported criminal behaviour using hidden Markov models”, Sociology Seminar Series, Bielefeld, May 2020
• "Does the hot hand exist? An analysis of professional darts using state-space models”, Online Seminar of the RSS WMLG, April 2020 (video available at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Na9WThVh1m0)
• "A regularized hidden Markov model for analyzing the 'hot shoe' in football", 12th CMStatistics, London, UK, December 2019
• "A regularized hidden Markov model for analyzing the 'hot shoe' in football", Workshop of the Centre for Statistics, Bielefeld, November 2019
• "A copula-based multivariate hidden Markov model for modelling momentum in football", 34th International Workshop on Statistical Modelling, Guimarães, Portugal, July 2019
• "Modelling momentum in football", MathSport International, Athens, July 2019
• "Performance when stakes are high: do professional darts players keep their cool?", Workshop of the Centre for Statistics, Bielefeld, May 2019
• "A copula-based multivariate hidden Markov model for modelling momentum in football", DAGStat, Munich, March 2019
• "An analysis of a hot hand effect in professional darts using state-space models", 11th CMStatistics, Pisa, Italy, December 2018
• "Modeling Momentum in Soccer", Workshop of the Centre for Statistics, Bielefeld, December 2018
• "The Hot Hand in Professional Darts", 33rd International Workshop on Statistical Modelling, Bristol, UK, July 2018
• "The Hot Hand in Professional Darts", Workshop of the Centre for Statistics, Bielefeld, June 2018
• "Evaluating fraud detection systems in sports betting using bivariate distributional regression", Workshop of the Centre for Statistics, Bielefeld, October 2017
• "Match-Fixing in the Italian Serie B - An Empirical Approach Using Flexible Regression", 9th ESEA European Conference on Sport Economics, Paderborn, August 2017
• "Match-Fixing in the Italian Serie B – An Empirical Approach Using Flexible Regression", Workshop of the Centre for Statistics, Bielefeld, May 2017
• "Detecting match-fixing in football - an analysis of the Bundesliga and 3. Liga in Germany", Statistics Seminar Series, Bielefeld, January 2017

Teaching

• Lecture series "Big data is watching you! Vom selbstbestimmten Umgang mit Daten in der modernen Welt" (winter term 2019/20)
• Organizator and instructor for R courses (2017-2020)
• Statistical Consulting (2018-2020)
• Practicals for the lecture course "Grundlagen der Statistik" (2017-2019)
• Tutorials for the lecture courses "Angewandte Statistik", "Statistik I", "Statistik II" and "Einführung in die Ökonometrie" (2013 - 2017)