Modes of Navigating Uncertainty and their Societal Effects (MODUS)

The MODUS research initiative investigates how uncertainty is navigated by key actors in different societies and times. Uncertainty shapes conflicts, crises and disasters, as well as innovations and new technologies. But how do people, institutions, governments and politics navigate the different kinds of uncertainty? The aim of MODUS is on the one hand to identify modes of navigating uncertainty in different contexts and on the other hand to analyse the resulting social effects. To date, research has been dominated by the idea that uncertainty is threatening or even harmful to societies and must be controlled and tamed. However, less research has been done into how uncertainty can be navigated in such a way that societies become more resilient to crises and more capable of dealing with conflict. In collaboration with central social actors who have to manage uncertainty in societies, the approaches and models developed in the cluster will be tested in an Uncertainty Forum.

The overarching scientific goal of MODUS ist to develop and apply a systematic framework for studying the way uncertainty is navigated in different societal realms and for analysing the emerging societal effects of uncertainty. To pursue this goal MODUS aims to develop methodologies that allow to identify and categorize generalizable modes of navigating uncertainty based on different types of data sources and to generate new models, approaches and methods for capturing the emergent phenomena arising from the interaction of agents employing different modes of navigating uncertainty. We aim to demonstrate and exploit the value of these concepts and tools by applying them to address concrete research questions in different focal areas. A long-term goal of the MODUS agenda is to provide scientific guidance to strengthen the preparedness of the society in the face of uncertainty.